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The Farmers’ Almanac and Environment and Climate Change Canada winter seasonal forecasts at odds

2021-22 Farmers’ Almanac predicts ‘near normal’ winter for B.C. while the Environment Canada forecast shows signs of a slightly more promising ski season
 | October 6, 2021
Winter seasonal forecasts clash for upcoming ski season. Photo Zuzy Rocka.

Winter enthusiasts have looked to the Farmers’ Almanac for decades to get a sense of what Old Man Winter will bring, and this year it seems he’s taking skiers and snowboarders on a rollercoaster ride of flip-flopping temperatures and varying precipitation.

According to the Farmers’ Almanac website, which bases their long-range seasonal forecasts on “mathematical and astronomical formulas that [are] guided by the rules set forth by founding editor David Young,” this winter will be nothing but average with a few bumps along winter’s icy road.

The new year is expected to start out with warmer temperatures and wetter precipitation while gradually becoming colder and whiter before the taps turn off temporarily in February.

“In sharp contrast, February will average out to be a much quieter month in terms of storminess across much of the nation,” reads the Farmers’ Almanac forecast.

However, as the season rolls into spring, unseasonably cold temperatures coupled with near-normal snowfall amounts are expected to close out the season.

In contrast, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada, there is a 41 per cent chance of more precipitation than average and a 55 per cent chance of colder-than-normal temperatures from January to March 2022, both are postive signs of a good snow year.

The Farmers’ Almanac claims to have a 75 to 80 per cent accuracy in their forecasts.

“But, we remind everyone that our predictions are long-range and are meant to give you a good idea of what might come your way in the next year.”

For reference, on average in Kamloops (the nearest Government of Canada and World Meteorological Organization weather station), there is an average of 64.5 centimetres (cm) of snow with 27.4 days of snowfall according to the federal government’s meteorological data for Kamloops.